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Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Warren Buffett. Show all posts

Monday, October 03, 2011

Berkshire D(St)eal with Bank of America & Buyback

Bank of America Deal
"Bank of America Corporation announced today that it reached an agreement to sell 50,000 shares of Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock with a liquidation value of $100,000 per share to Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. in a private offering. The preferred stock has a dividend of 6 percent per annum, payable in equal quarterly installments, and is redeemable by the company at any time at a 5 percent premium.
In conjunction with this agreement, Berkshire Hathaway will also receive warrants to purchase 700,000,000 shares of Bank of America common stock at an exercise price of $7.142857 per share. The warrants may be exercised in whole or in part at any time, and from time to time, during the 10-year period following the closing date of the transaction. The aggregate purchase price to be received by Bank of America for the preferred stock and warrants is $5 billion in cash."

If you want to replicate the deal on Sep 30, you could buy 214.13 million preferred in the market with a coupon of 8.125% and trading at 23.35.    You would get a higher dividend than Berkshire - about 135 Million higher.  Hypothetically, you could buy the BAC-WTA at 2.71 per warrant to be exercised at $13.3 with this excess.  You can buy about 50 Million warrants in a year.

To match, you will buy for 14 years to reach the 700 Million assuming the price remains the same throughout.
And, your break-even point is about $9 higher than Berkshire's - a difference of $6.3 Billion.




Now that's what I call a d(st)eal.

Buy Back of Shares
Long-time shareholders of Berkshire had to rub their eyes twice to convince themselves that they were not dreaming/in a nightmare when this news hit the wires.  (http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/sep2611.pdf).
The two key criteria is:-
1.at prices no higher than a 10% premium over the then-current book value of the shares; and
2. repurchases will not be made if they would reduce Berkshire’s consolidated cash equivalent holdings below $20 billion


Buffett's position outlined in the 1999 letter offers amazing clarity on the subject.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1999htm.html


"Share Repurchases


  Recently, a number of shareholders have suggested to us that Berkshire repurchase its shares. Usually the requests were rationally based, but a few leaned on spurious logic.
     There is only one combination of facts that makes it advisable for a company to repurchase its shares: First, the company has available funds -- cash plus sensible borrowing capacity -- beyond the near-term needs of the business and, second, finds its stock selling in the market below its intrinsic value, conservatively-calculated. To this we add a caveat: Shareholders should have been supplied all the information they need for estimating that value. Otherwise, insiders could take advantage of their uninformed partners and buy out their interests at a fraction of true worth. We have, on rare occasions, seen that happen. Usually, of course, chicanery is employed to drive stock prices up, not down.
     The business "needs" that I speak of are of two kinds: First, expenditures that a company must make to maintain its competitive position (e.g., the remodeling of stores at Helzberg's) and, second, optional outlays, aimed at business growth, that management expects will produce more than a dollar of value for each dollar spent (R. C. Willey's expansion into Idaho).
     When available funds exceed needs of those kinds, a company with a growth-oriented shareholder population can buy new businesses or repurchase shares. If a company's stock is selling well below intrinsic value, repurchases usually make the most sense. In the mid-1970s, the wisdom of making these was virtually screaming at managements, but few responded. In most cases, those that did made their owners much wealthier than if alternative courses of action had been pursued. Indeed, during the 1970s (and, spasmodically, for some years thereafter) we searched for companies that were large repurchasers of their shares. This often was a tipoff that the company was both undervalued and run by a shareholder-oriented management.
     That day is past. Now, repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason: to pump or support the stock price. The shareholder who chooses to sell today, of course, is benefitted by any buyer, whatever his origin or motives. But the continuing shareholder is penalized by repurchases above intrinsic value. Buying dollar bills for $1.10 is not good business for those who stick around.
     Charlie and I admit that we feel confident in estimating intrinsic value for only a portion of traded equities and then only when we employ a range of values, rather than some pseudo-precise figure. Nevertheless, it appears to us that many companies now making repurchases are overpaying departing shareholders at the expense of those who stay. In defense of those companies, I would say that it is natural for CEOs to be optimistic about their own businesses. They also know a whole lot more about them than I do. However, I can't help but feel that too often today's repurchases are dictated by management's desire to "show confidence" or be in fashion rather than by a desire to enhance per-share value.
     Sometimes, too, companies say they are repurchasing shares to offset the shares issued when stock options granted at much lower prices are exercised. This "buy high, sell low" strategy is one many unfortunate investors have employed -- but never intentionally! Managements, however, seem to follow this perverse activity very cheerfully.
     Of course, both option grants and repurchases may make sense -- but if that's the case, it's not because the two activities are logically related. Rationally, a company's decision to repurchase shares or to issue them should stand on its own feet. Just because stock has been issued to satisfy options -- or for any other reason -- does not mean that stock should be repurchased at a price above intrinsic value. Correspondingly, a stock that sells well below intrinsic value should be repurchased whether or not stock has previously been issued (or may be because of outstanding options).
     You should be aware that, at certain times in the past, I have erred in not making repurchases. My appraisal of Berkshire's value was then too conservative or I was too enthused about some alternative use of funds. We have therefore missed some opportunities -- though Berkshire's trading volume at these points was too light for us to have done much buying, which means that the gain in our per-share value would have been minimal. (A repurchase of, say, 2% of a company's shares at a 25% discount from per-share intrinsic value produces only a ½% gain in that value at most -- and even less if the funds could alternatively have been deployed in value-building moves.)
     Some of the letters we've received clearly imply that the writer is unconcerned about intrinsic value considerations but instead wants us to trumpet an intention to repurchase so that the stock will rise (or quit going down). If the writer wants to sell tomorrow, his thinking makes sense -- for him! -- but if he intends to hold, he should instead hope the stock falls and trades in enough volume for us to buy a lot of it. That's the only way a repurchase program can have any real benefit for a continuing shareholder.
     We will not repurchase shares unless we believe Berkshire stock is selling well below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Nor will we attempt to talk the stock up or down. (Neither publicly or privately have I ever told anyone to buy or sell Berkshire shares.) Instead we will give all shareholders -- and potential shareholders -- the same valuation-related information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed.
     Recently, when the A shares fell below $45,000, we considered making repurchases. We decided, however, to delay buying, if indeed we elect to do any, until shareholders have had the chance to review this report. If we do find that repurchases make sense, we will only rarely place bids on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"). Instead, we will respond to offers made directly to us at or below the NYSE bid. If you wish to offer stock, have your broker call Mark Millard at 402-346-1400. When a trade occurs, the broker can either record it in the "third market" or on the NYSE. We will favor purchase of the B shares if they are selling at more than a 2% discount to the A. We will not engage in transactions involving fewer than 10 shares of A or 50 shares of B.
     Please be clear about one point: We will never make purchases with the intention of stemming a decline in Berkshire's price. Rather we will make them if and when we believe that they represent an attractive use of the Company's money. At best, repurchases are likely to have only a very minor effect on the future rate of gain in our stock's intrinsic value."

Thursday, May 20, 2010

2010 Berkshire Meeting

Going to Omaha and Pasadena every May had become a fixture in my life for the past few years.  I decided to break with this little tradition starting this year.  Initial thoughts were driven by the difficulty of managing two mostly personal trips to the other side of the world in a gap of one month (the second for other unavoidable reasons).  Then, came the news that Berkshire was splitting the B shares and the final nail in the coffin was that the canceled international shareholders meet and greet.  The last one is where people from outside North America got to meet the man himself.  Besides, over the years the quality of the crowd has been deteriorating, that is, in their seriousness towards Berkshire business.  Now, it has ceased to be less of a convention and more of a vacation spot.

My decision cannot be equated with a full blown-out divorce, it is more like a couple deciding that they need to spend time apart.  And, the big significant difference is this relationship is one sided commitment from my side.

Twitter and live coverage by Omaha World Herald and Morningstar made up for the physical distance.  Other bloggers have done an excellent job of note taking and posting them.  I am posting some links at the end here.

First some excerpts from the annual report for 2009 and the letter to shareholders:-
 
Dividends
Following a question in 2009 meeting, he added an explanation to the Principle 9 of the Owner's Manual.  (For the uninitiated, Berkshire codified its Owner-related principles in 1996 and it addresses the agency problems inherent in a corporate form of organisation where the manager's interests and the owner-shareholder's interests are not aligned.  It is a must read for any management/finance professional).

"We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results. We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained. To date, this test has been met. We will continue to apply it on a five-year rolling basis. As our net worth grows, it is more difficult to use retained earnings wisely.
I should have written the “five-year rolling basis” sentence differently, an error I didn’t realize until I received a question about this subject at the 2009 annual meeting.
When the stock market has declined sharply over a five-year stretch, our market-price premium to book value has sometimes shrunk. And when that happens, we fail the test as I improperly formulated it. In fact, we fell far short as early as 1971-75, well before I wrote this principle in 1983.
The five-year test should be: (1) during the period did our book-value gain exceed the performance of the S&P; and (2) did our stock consistently sell at a premium to book, meaning that every $1 of retained earnings was always worth more than $1? If these tests are met, retaining earnings has made sense."

Earlier it said:
"We continue to pass the test, but the challenges of doing so have grown more difficult. If we reach the point that we can’t create extra value by retaining earnings, we will pay them out and let our shareholders deploy the funds."  And, the question last year was, since you failed this test, will you pay a dividend?

From this year's meeting - "Buffett is asked about whether Berskshire would issue a dividend. Buffett says every dollar left in the business has produced something over a $1.30. Buffett says Berkshire has met the test of finding profitability. Berkshire has made every $1 of retained earnings make more than $1. Buffett says if the company does that over time, it will continue to retain earnings. "

Investment Strategy

"In earlier days, Charlie and I shunned capital-intensive businesses such as public utilities. Indeed, the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. We are fortunate to own a number of such businesses, and we would love to buy more. Anticipating, however, that Berkshire will generate ever-increasing amounts of cash, we are today quite willing to enter businesses that regularly require large capital expenditures. We expect only that these businesses have reasonable expectations of earning decent returns on the incremental sums they invest. If our expectations are met – and we believe that they will be – Berkshire’s ever-growing collection of good to great businesses should produce above-average, though certainly not spectacular, returns in the decades ahead."

Tweets:-
when premiums are wrong, go play golf. (too many ppl confuse action w progress/value)
Buffett: events around world of last few years makes me more bearish on all currencies than before
We have always had the same potential, it's our perception of what is possible that changes.
Buffett: lending money (buying bonds) boils down to "are they going to broke or not", equity q is much more complicated
Buffett: I knew enough to lend them money, but didn't have enough info to buy the equity [in Harley]
LOL! Buffett: I kinda like a business where guys tattoo your name on their chest [re: Harley]
"If you wanted to bet on higher or lower inflation, you'd want to vote on higher. Maybe a lot higher."
Buffett: your money can be inflated away, but your talent can't be inflated away--regardless of the currency
Buffett: if inflation gets going, it will be hard to stop; trend is not destiny, we have power to control our future
"Talent is the perfect asset to deal with any monetary condition (inflation/deflation). Charlie and I will have to rely on money."

When it comes to managing money, Charlie Munger just said: "Take the high road. It's far less crowded."
"I think we're in for a long period for where the ordinary result is not going to be very exciting." -- Munger.
Charlie: equities are the best of a bad lot of available opportunities. In for a long period where ordinary result not exciting
Charlie: fundamental theory is pragmatism because it suits our natures and because it seems to work better
"It's not about how big your circle of competence is but rather on knowing where the perimeter is" -Buffett
Buffett says the pressure of extraordinarily low interest rates on asset prices is hard to overestimate
Buffet on 0.10% interest rates: If you invested at 0.10% when Columbus landed...you would have almost doubled your money by now!
Speculators do no harm if they are bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise - WB quoting Keynes
...but it will be ill-done if enterprise becomes a bubble on a whirlpool of speculation - Buffett quoting Keynes
Munger says stats on gov't debt are misleading because only includes bonds outstanding and not unfunded obligations
"if you want to give away all of your money to charity, it's a great tax dodge." - Warren Buffet
Munger: If BRK would create make-work jobs to increase human hope, the effect over time would be to reduce human hope
"If you believe in creative destruction...as we do in this country..you better also have a social safety net" -Buffett
Munger: The politicians are not behaving better now that the newspapers are weakening. We're going to miss the newspapers.
Munger: It can be hard in India because of gov't regulations. This could lead to faster growth in other emerging markets like China


On buying a rail road:-

"Our BNSF operation, it should be noted, has certain important economic characteristics that resemble those of our electric utilities. In both cases we provide fundamental services that are, and will remain, essential to the economic well-being of our customers, the communities we serve, and indeed the nation. Both will require heavy investment that greatly exceeds depreciation allowances for decades to come. Both must also plan far ahead to satisfy demand that is expected to outstrip the needs of the past. Finally, both require wise regulators who will provide certainty about allowable returns so that we can confidently make the huge investments required to maintain, replace and expand the plant.
We see a “social compact” existing between the public and our railroad business, just as is the case with our utilities. If either side shirks its obligations, both sides will inevitably suffer. Therefore, both parties to the compact should – and we believe will – understand the benefit of behaving in a way that encourages good behavior by the other. It is inconceivable that our country will realize anything close to its full economic potential without its possessing first-class electricity and railroad systems. We will do our part to see that they exist.
In the future, BNSF results will be included in this “regulated utility” section. Aside from the two businesses having similar underlying economic characteristics, both are logical users of substantial amounts of debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Both will retain most of their earnings. Both will earn and invest large sums in good times or bad, though the railroad will display the greater cyclicality. Overall, we expect this regulated sector to deliver significantly increased earnings over time, albeit at the cost of our investing many tens – yes, tens – of billions of dollars of incremental equity capital."
 
Managing and Evaluating Managerial Performance

Buffett clarifies Berkshire's measurement metrics for evaluating managerial performance.  "From the start, Charlie and I have believed in having a rational and unbending standard for measuring what we have – or have not – accomplished. That keeps us from the temptation of seeing where the arrow of performance lands and then painting the bull’s eye around it."
Then he guides you through the maze of seemingly complex thought process to arrive at a simple solution that is typical of Buffett.  S&P 500 is the benchmark; Berkshire's share price can be influenced by market forces that are beyond the control of the management; intrinsic value of Berkshire is hard to calculate; so we use book value though it understates.  Then he goes to show you what if they had calculated performance using market value.  And the conclusion, "..our defense has been better than our offense, and that’s likely to continue." and that "our performance advantage has shrunk dramatically as our size has grown, an unpleasant trend that is certain to continue." and promises better-than-average results due to the outstanding businesses and truly great managers.

Reiterating the managerial excellence is a little movie that is played with music to "My Favorite Things" from The Sound of Music.  And comments like "If Charlie, I and Ajit are ever in a sinking boat – and you can only save one of us – swim to Ajit." (talking about Ajit Jain of National Indemnity)

From the meeting (courtesy Omaha World Herald's Joe Ruff)- "Buffett is asked about compensation of its managers. Buffett says Berkshire never uses a compensation consultation. Buffett says it is hard to determine one standard for Berkshire's diverse companies. Buffett says some businesses are easier to manage than others, some use more capital expenses than others. Buffett says he tries to figure out how best to pay people based on the economic characteristics of their industries. Buffett says it does not take that much time and it is not rocket science. But he says it does take some understanding of the characteristics of the different companies. And he says it requires some interaction with the managers, with them and Buffett sharing ideas about what they really are contributing to the company. Buffett says Berkshire pays some big money, with manager making 10s of millions annually. And we have managers if we suffer they suffer. But Buffett says everyone wants to be treated fairly. Buffett says the important thing is to have the salaries reached understood by the managers. Buffett says managers really need to widen their moats compared with other companies in their industries. Munger says it is amazing how simple it has been, how little time it has taken and how well it has worked."

"Buffett is asked about having managers who misbehave ethically or legally. Would Berkshire intervene then? Buffett says yes, sure. Buffett says he wants to hear about problems. Buffett says there is an internal function in Berkshire that anything that comes in relating to alleged bad behavior it will be investigated by Berkshire. Everyone once in awhile there have been important transgressions that have come to me. We encourage that. Buffett says a letter goes out every two years, a page and half long. Buffett says in the letter it talks about having more money than it needs, but reputation is important. Buffett says a new line says if reason you are doing something because the next guy is doing it, that is not good enough. Buffett says there has to be a reason better than that. Buffett says Berkshire will have more trouble than it has in the past because it is so much bigger than it used to be. But Buffett says he and Munger want to hear about it fast if there is trouble."

Tweets:-
Buffett on compensation: It's not rocket science but requires an interaction w/ managers: what do they actually add 2 the company?
Buffett: what I pay managers for is to widen the moat
Buffett on compensation: You still have to treat people fair, even if they don't need the money.

"Lose money for the firm and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm and I will be ruthless."
"When something is found or alleged: Get it right, get it fast, get it out, get it over. But get it right is number one".WB

There are many CEOs in america I would like to see gone and Loyd Blankfein is not one of them, says Charlie
 
All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there

I would love to see another annual report with the following appropriate counsel on avoiding trouble - "Long ago, Charlie laid out his strongest ambition: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” That bit of wisdom was inspired by Jacobi, the great Prussian mathematician, who counseled “Invert, always invert” as an aid to solving difficult problems. (I can report as well that this inversion approach works on a less lofty level: Sing a country song in reverse, and you will quickly recover your car, house and wife.)"

What won't Berkshire do?
- avoid businesses whose future they cannot evaluate;
- never be dependent on the kindness of strangers;
- subsidiaries operate on their own - "would rather suffer the visible costs of a few bad decisions than incur the many invisible costs that come from decisions made too slowly – or not at all – because of a stifling bureaucracy."...."Charlie and I will limit ourselves to allocating capital, controlling enterprise risk, choosing managers and setting their compensation."
- make no attempt to woo Wall Street. "want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it’s one that follows policies with which they concur."

Tweets:-
""Success is avoiding stupidity" Charlie Munger ;) "
"You give human beings the flexibility to do absolutely anything they damn well please, they will go plum crazy" - CM
"You want to create a structure that minimizes the weaknesses of human behavior" -Buffett

Taking responsibility:

"Last year your chairman closed the book on a very expensive business fiasco entirely of his own making." and goes on to talk about the credit cards to GEICO customers (I was one of them, who closed the card when they decided to charge the fees.)
"GEICO’s managers, it should be emphasized, were never enthusiastic about my idea. They warned me that instead of getting the cream of GEICO’s customers we would get the – – – – – well, let’s call it the non-cream. I subtly indicated that I was older and wiser.
I was just older."

"The major problem for Berkshire last year was NetJets, an aviation operation that offers fractional ownership of jets. Over the years, it has been enormously successful in establishing itself as the premier company in its industry, with the value of its fleet far exceeding that of its three major competitors combined. Overall, our dominance in the field remains unchallenged."
"NetJets’ business operation, however, has been another story. In the eleven years that we have owned the company, it has recorded an aggregate pre-tax loss of $157 million.  It’s clear that I failed you in letting NetJets descend into this condition. But, luckily, I have been bailed out.  Dave Sokol, the enormously talented builder and operator of MidAmerican Energy, became CEO of NetJets in August. His leadership has been transforming"
"Most important, none of the changes wrought by Dave have in any way undercut the top-of-the-line standards for safety and service that Rich Santulli, NetJets’ previous CEO and the father of the fractionalownership industry, insisted upon. Dave and I have the strongest possible personal interest in maintaining these standards because we and our families use NetJets for almost all of our flying, as do many of our directors and managers. None of us are assigned special planes nor crews. We receive exactly the same treatment as any other owner, meaning we pay the same prices as everyone else does when we are using our personal contracts. In short, we eat our own cooking. In the aviation business, no other testimonial means more."

"It’s my job to keep Berkshire far away from such problems. Charlie and I believe that a CEO must not delegate risk control. It’s simply too important. At Berkshire, I both initiate and monitor every derivatives contract on our books, with the exception of operations-related contracts at a few of our subsidiaries, such as MidAmerican, and the minor runoff contracts at General Re. If Berkshire ever gets in trouble, it will be my fault.  It will not be because of misjudgments made by a Risk Committee or Chief Risk Officer."

"In my view a board of directors of a huge financial institution is derelict if it does not insist that its CEO bear full responsibility for risk control. If he’s incapable of handling that job, he should look for other employment. And if he fails at it – with the government thereupon required to step in with funds or guarantees – the financial consequences for him and his board should be severe.  It has not been shareholders who have botched the operations of some of our country’s largest financial institutions. Yet they have borne the burden, with 90% or more of the value of their holdings wiped out in most cases of failure. Collectively, they have lost more than $500 billion in just the four largest financial fiascos of the last two years. To say these owners have been “bailed-out” is to make a mockery of the term.  The CEOs and directors of the failed companies, however, have largely gone unscathed. Their fortunes may have been diminished by the disasters they oversaw, but they still live in grand style. It is the behavior of these CEOs and directors that needs to be changed: If their institutions and the country are harmed by their recklessness, they should pay a heavy price – one not reimbursable by the companies they’ve damaged nor by insurance. CEOs and, in many cases, directors have long benefitted from oversized financial carrots; some meaningful sticks now need to be part of their employment picture as well."

On derivative contracts:-

- Though it’s no sure thing, I expect our contracts in aggregate to deliver us a profit over their lifetime.
- Only a handful of our contracts require us to post collateral under any circumstances.
- you should expect large swings in the carrying value of these contracts. "..these wild swings neither cheer nor bother Charlie and me"
"To date we have significantly profited from the float they provide. We expect also to earn
further investment income over the life of our contracts."
"The dangers that derivatives pose for both participants and society – dangers of which we’ve long warned, and that can be dynamite – arise when these contracts lead to leverage and/or counterparty risk that is extreme. At Berkshire nothing like that has occurred – nor will it. 
"Buffett is asked what useful function do derivatives serve? The questioner says we have done well without them for years. Buffett turns the question to Munger. Munger says derivatives on things like grain or other commodities are fine, but if all other derivatives vanished he would be fine with that. Buffett quotes John Maynard Keynes as saying speculators do no harm if they are bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But it will be ill-done if enterprise becomes a bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. Munger says if a small group with a lot of money and influence are very interested in something, they will win out. He says that is just the way it is."

Tweets:-
Warren: different prices for collateralized vs uncollateralized derivative contracts akin to renting furnished or unfurnished apt.
Munger: If all derivatives vanished, the world would be a better place
Issuing Shares for shares
 
"Our subsidiaries made a few small “bolt-on” acquisitions last year for cash, but our blockbuster deal with BNSF required us to issue about 95,000 Berkshire shares that amounted to 6.1% of those previously outstanding. Charlie and I enjoy issuing Berkshire stock about as much as we relish prepping for a colonoscopy. 
The reason for our distaste is simple. If we wouldn’t dream of selling Berkshire in its entirety at the current market price, why in the world should we “sell” a significant part of the company at that same inadequate price by issuing our stock in a merger?
In evaluating a stock-for-stock offer, shareholders of the target company quite understandably focus on the market price of the acquirer’s shares that are to be given them. But they also expect the transaction to deliver them the intrinsic value of their own shares – the ones they are giving up. If shares of a prospective acquirer are selling below their intrinsic value, it’s impossible for that buyer to make a sensible deal in an all-stock deal. You simply can’t exchange an undervalued stock for a fully-valued one without hurting your shareholders.
Imagine, if you will, Company A and Company B, of equal size and both with businesses intrinsically worth $100 per share. Both of their stocks, however, sell for $80 per share. The CEO of A, long on confidence and short on smarts, offers 11⁄4 shares of A for each share of B, correctly telling his directors that B is worth $100 per share. He will neglect to explain, though, that what he is giving will cost his shareholders $125 in intrinsic value. If the directors are mathematically challenged as well, and a deal is therefore completed, the shareholders of B will end up owning 55.6% of A & B’s combined assets and A’s shareholders will own 44.4%. Not everyone at A, it should be noted, is a loser from this nonsensical transaction. Its CEO now runs a company twice as large as his original domain, in a world where size tends to correlate with both prestige and compensation.
If an acquirer’s stock is overvalued, it’s a different story: Using it as a currency works to the acquirer’s advantage. That’s why bubbles in various areas of the stock market have invariably led to serial issuances of stock by sly promoters. Going by the market value of their stock, they can afford to overpay because they are, in effect, using counterfeit money. Periodically, many air-for-assets acquisitions have taken place, the late 1960s having been a particularly obscene period for such chicanery. Indeed, certain large companies were built in this way. (No one involved, of course, ever publicly acknowledges the reality of what is going on, though there is plenty of private snickering.) 
In our BNSF acquisition, the selling shareholders quite properly evaluated our offer at $100 per share.  The cost to us, however, was somewhat higher since 40% of the $100 was delivered in our shares, which Charlie and I believed to be worth more than their market value. Fortunately, we had long owned a substantial amount of BNSF stock that we purchased in the market for cash. All told, therefore, only about 30% of our cost overall was paid with Berkshire shares.
In the end, Charlie and I decided that the disadvantage of paying 30% of the price through stock was offset by the opportunity the acquisition gave us to deploy $22 billion of cash in a business we understood and liked for the long term. It has the additional virtue of being run by Matt Rose, whom we trust and admire. We also like the prospect of investing additional billions over the years at reasonable rates of return. But the final decision was a close one. If we had needed to use more stock to make the acquisition, it would in fact have made no sense. We would have then been giving up more than we were getting.

I have been in dozens of board meetings in which acquisitions have been deliberated, often with the directors being instructed by high-priced investment bankers (are there any other kind?). Invariably, the bankers give the board a detailed assessment of the value of the company being purchased, with emphasis on why it is worth far more than its market price. In more than fifty years of board memberships, however, never have I heard the investment bankers (or management!) discuss the true value of what is being given. When a deal involved the issuance of the acquirer’s stock, they simply used market value to measure the cost. They did this even though they would have argued that the acquirer’s stock price was woefully inadequate – absolutely no indicator of its real value – had a takeover bid for the acquirer instead been the subject up for discussion.
When stock is the currency being contemplated in an acquisition and when directors are hearing from an advisor, it appears to me that there is only one way to get a rational and balanced discussion. Directors should hire a second advisor to make the case against the proposed acquisition, with its fee contingent on the deal not going through. Absent this drastic remedy, our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.”

"our fellows caved in and agreed to this value-destroying deal. “We need to show that we are in the hunt. Besides, it’s only a small deal,” they said, as if only major harm to shareholders would have been a legitimate reason for holding back. Charlie’s reaction at the time: “Are we supposed to applaud because the dog that fouls our lawn is a Chihuahua rather than a Saint Bernard?”

Media over-exposure
Tweet : "buffett is appearing in Wall Street 2 w/ michael Douglas? Who knew?"
From the meeting "Buffett is asked if his increased media exposure is good for Berkshire shareholders. Buffett says probably not. Buffett says he has seen over the years the development of broadcast television over print. He says if you want a record of what you actually said, instead of a reporter's and editors' interpretations, it is great to have the broadcast version. I like the idea, whether it is charlie rose or CNBC, a record of my own words, instead of someone's interpretation of it."

Ethics:-
Charlie: Every business should decline a lot of business that it doesn't. Just because it's legal, doesn't make it right
"The ideal is that we celebrate wealth only when it has been fairly won and wisely used." -Charlie Munger
Charlie: we get offered things that people won't sell to anyone else. We have our own ethics-based screening device
WB if reason you are doing something because the next guy is doing it, that is not good enough

 
Learning:-
"The old men (Warren & Charlie) always continue to learn which is essential!" -Charlie Munger
If you keep asking questions at a young age like that, gradually you learn. Love when Munger ruminates on his childhood.
Charlie: if you're scared to do something, maybe you should get your feet wet with a little more failure.
Charlie: go to bed each night a little wiser than you were when you got up. People who do that almost never utterly fail




Buffett says in a country where the undisciplined are unpunished it brings people to wonder why they should behave properly
"When you picked your wife, you picked the best who would take you. We should live the rest of our lives like that." Charlie Munger


I am a twit @seshnath 

Links to Notes:-
http://inoculatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/05/2010-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting.html
http://www.scribd.com/doc/30895400/Annual-Meeting-2010-Final-2-0

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting Notes

I attended the Berkshire Hathaway Meeting this year as well. Here is a link to my quick notes from the meeting (pdf) grouped by topic and with some background reference to the questions
I have also included notes from others and other coverage at the end. Feel free to distribute it.

Sunday, March 01, 2009

Berkshire Letter 2008

The Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s 2008 letter (pdf) is out. The unusual point is that Buffett posted a decline in book value for the second time in the last 40+ years and still out-performed the S&P by 27 percent.

On the face of it, things look bad for Berkshire. However, reading through the letter and report I am happy to note the swing in book value comes mostly from derivative losses which can go either way in a given year. Buffett's discussion on the state of Manufactured Homes market and Black-Scholes Formula are a must-read.

Will this present a buying opportunity for BRK? Here are some quick excerpts from the letter:-
_______________________________________________________________
On Derivatives and Mutual Dependence in Markets

"Derivatives contracts, in contrast, often go unsettled for years, or even decades, with counterparties building up huge claims against each other. “Paper” assets and liabilities – often hard to quantify – become important parts of financial statements though these items will not be validated for many years. Additionally, a frightening web of mutual dependence develops among huge financial institutions. Receivables and payables by the billions become concentrated in the hands of a few large dealers who are apt to be highly-leveraged in other ways as well. Participants seeking to dodge troubles face the same problem as someone seeking to avoid venereal disease: It’s not just whom you sleep with, but also whom they are sleeping with."
Pricing Risk
"The investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it. This change has not been minor; the pendulum has covered an extraordinary arc. A few years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that yields like today’s could have been obtained on good-grade municipal or corporate bonds even while risk-free governments offered near-zero returns on short-term bonds and no better than a pittance on long-terms. When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost
equally extraordinary."
Inflation
"...even though that wonderful cash is earning close to nothing and will surely find its purchasing power eroded over time."
"This debilitating spiral has spurred our government to take massive action. In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone “all in.” Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation. Moreover, major industries have become dependent on Federal assistance, and they will be followed by cities and states bearing mind-boggling requests. Weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political
challenge. They won’t leave willingly."
On Investing
" Approval, though, is not the goal of investing. In fact, approval is often counter-productive because it sedates the brain and makes it less receptive to new facts or a re-examination of conclusions formed earlier. Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns. "
"Investors should be skeptical of history-based models. Constructed by a nerdy-sounding priesthood using esoteric terms such as beta, gamma, sigma and the like, these models tend to look impressive. Too often, though, investors forget to examine the assumptions behind the symbols. Our advice: Beware of geeks bearing formulas."

On Housing Crisis

"Indeed, the stupefying losses in mortgage-related securities came in large part because of flawed, history-based models used by salesmen, rating agencies and investors. These parties looked at loss experience over periods when home prices rose only moderately and speculation in houses was negligible. They then made this experience a yardstick for evaluating future losses. They blissfully ignored the fact that house prices had recently skyrocketed, loan practices had deteriorated and many buyers had opted for houses they couldn’t afford.
In short, universe “past” and universe “current” had very different characteristics. But lenders, government and media largely failed to recognize this all-important fact."

"Commentary about the current housing crisis often ignores the crucial fact that most foreclosures do not occur because a house is worth less than its mortgage (so-called “upside-down” loans). Rather, foreclosures take place because borrowers can’t pay the monthly payment that they agreed to pay. Homeowners who have made a meaningful down-payment – derived from savings and not from other borrowing – seldom walk away from a primary residence simply because its value today is less than the mortgage. Instead, they walk when they can’t make the monthly payments.
Home ownership is a wonderful thing. My family and I have enjoyed my present home for 50 years, with more to come. But enjoyment and utility should be the primary motives for purchase, not profit or refi possibilities. And the home purchased ought to fit the income of the purchaser.
The present housing debacle should teach home buyers, lenders, brokers and government some simple lessons that will ensure stability in the future. Home purchases should involve an honest-to-God down payment of at least 10% and monthly payments that can be comfortably handled by the borrower’s income. That income should be carefully verified.
Putting people into homes, though a desirable goal, shouldn’t be our country’s primary objective.
Keeping them in their homes should be the ambition."
____________________________________________________________________

I am also glad to see the format change for asking questions. Last year was one of the worst meetings regarding the quality of questions asked by shareholders.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Running on a treadmill to stay at the same place

Inflation is back in the news in India (Refer the shared article link). In this context, I was reading Warren Buffett's old article in Fortune from 1977. (Try this pdf for scanned version and this link). The clarity of thought is amazing and the ability to link capital deployment and social justice in one single context is a rare find for me. In the part titled "Five ways to improve earnings", he goes through the Dupont Model with impeccable clarity of thought. Here are some key extracts:-

"Stocks are quite properly thought of as riskier than bonds. While that equity coupon is more or less fixed over periods of time, it does fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Investors' attitudes about the future can be affected substantially, although frequently erroneously, by those yearly changes. Stocks are also riskier because they come equipped with infinite maturities. (Even your friendly broker wouldn't have the nerve to peddle a 100-year bond, if he had any available, as "safe.") Because of the additional risk, the natural reaction of investors is to expect an equity return that is comfortably above the bond return - and 12 percent on equity versus, say, 10 percent on bonds issued py the same corporate universe does not seem to qualify as comfortable. As the spread narrows, equity investors start looking for the exits.
But, of course, as a group they can't get out. All they can achieve is a lot of movement, substantial frictional costs, and a new, much lower level of valuation, reflecting the lessened attractiveness of the 12 percent equity coupon under inflationary conditions. Bond investors have had a succession of shocks over the past decade in the course of discovering that there is no magic attached to any given coupon level - at 6 percent, or 8 percept, or 10 percent, bonds can still collapse in price. Stock investors, who are in general not aware that they too have a "coupon", are still receiving their education on this point."
"What widows don't notice
The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. It makes no difference to a widow with her savings in a 5 percent passbook account whether she pays 100 percent income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation, or pays no income taxes during years of 5 percent inflation. Either way, she is "taxed" in a manner that leaves her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 120 percent income tax, but doesn't seem to notice that 6 percent inflation is the economic equivalent."

"In the next ten years, the Dow would be doubled just by a combination of the 12 percent equity coupon, a 40 percent payout ratio, and the present 110 percent ratio of market to book value. And with 7 percent inflation, investors who sold at 1800 would still be considerably worse off than they are today after paying their capital-gains taxes.

I can almost hear the reaction of some investors to these downbeat thoughts. It will be to assume that, whatever the difficulties presented by the new investment era, they will somehow contrive to turn in superior results for themselves. Their success is most unlikely. And, in aggregate, of course, impossible. If you feel you can dance in and out of securities in a way that defeats the inflation tax, I Would like to be your broker - but not your partner."

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Wesco - Meeting 2008

I am posting my (pdf) brief notes from the Wesco Meeting from May 7, 2008. Enjoy Charles T. Munger's "socratic solitaire". Here are some other links to posted notes as well.
Nick Henderson - How about that!
Peter Boodel through - Reflections on Value Investing

Don't forget to check out Berkshire Notes at Reflections on Value Investing

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2008

Posting the excerpts from the meeting (PDF). Approx. 31000 people attended this time. I missed out on some questions while I went out for food/water. Also, I haven't repeated similar answers from previous years.
Here are some more sources for meeting proceedings.
Morningstar
Omaha World Herald

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Berkshire Hathaway – 2007 Meeting – Part Two

Views on:-

Right Margin of Safety:

WB - If we don’t understand something, we don’t try to compensate with a higher Margin of Safety. If you cannot see out what the business is going to be like for 5-10 years, do not invest in it.

Healthcare:-

WB – Berky would be interested in investing in a business with low frictional costs of distribution.

Intrinisic Value of Berky:-

WB – Should not be judged solely based on Book Value, but on use of retained earnings as well.

Derivatives:-

WB – There are valuation issues. Both sides of the same trade can value the same instrument differently and come up with different values. This is unusual.

Comments:- Usually, when a liability or a receivable is valued, the debtor and creditor always assign the same currency value to the transaction.

WB – Leverage and various forms of program trading are prevalent

Trade Vs. Buy & Hold:-

WB – Constant trading of assets can be an unhealthy practice. You have to understand human behavior to understand trading better.

CM – Bad results cannot be predicted with Gaussian distributions. The use of Beta and other statistical tools are prevalent because it is easy to teach and easy to compute.

Intrinsic Value: –

WB – Refers to Aesop’s fable – “A bird in hand is worth two in the bush”.

Global Warming:-

WB – Catastrophe exposures in insurance companies. Suggests that the US Govt. should err on the side of the planet.

CM – The effects of global warming can be tackled with capital.

Stocks Vs. Bonds:-

WB – Stocks are still a better investment than bonds

Small Funds:-

WB – High returns are possible for smaller funds compared to large

Sub-primes:-

WB - As long as the unemployment does not rise and inflation does not rise, its effects on the housing market will not affect the economy.

Volatility:-

WB - Volatility is not a good measure of risk. Use of Beta is not appropriate. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.

Management Quality and Integrity:-

WB – Look for direct and honest reporting

Filter of trust:-

WB – People give themselves away with the things they talk, the things they think are important

CM – Be especially suspicious when the proposals are too good to be true.

Discount Rates:-

CM – Just because you can measure something doesn’t mean it is the controlling variable.

Inflation Protection:-

WB – First level of protection, earning power

Second, owning good business with pricing power defined as the customers willingness to give up current income for use of its products

Railroads:-

WB – Vs Trucking – cost of fuel affects trucking 4X more than railroads and there is not much capacity addition in railroads.

Self-Development:-

In response to the question of a 10 year old girl who wants to earn money

CM – Sell yourself the best hour of the day and sell only the rest to others.

Investments:-

WB – Do not own a business with a weakening competitive edge.

Dollar:-

WB – Bearish without any significant policy changes on the part of US.

Cm – Weakening dollar not resulting in higher inflation is a surprise.

Good Board of Directors:-

WB –

  1. Have the right CEO
  2. The CEO does not over-reach.
  3. Independent judgement on big acquisitions.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Berkshire Hathaway - Meeting Notes Part I

The meeting opened with the cousin Jimmy Buffett playing the Berkshirehathawayville version of his song.
WB announced his plan for a cartoon series for children to impart financial education in an enjoyable manner.
The Q1 2007 results were posted with WB explaining that insurance rates have come down recently, but the effect will start showing up in a couple of quarters or so due to a lag effect in rates ratcheting down. He offerd caution on cat. insurance and mentioned that over a long term berky would be expect to break-even in tnis business and still come ahead because of its ability to manage float and generate float income.
He brought up the issue of a high accounts receivable by 7 billion than normal due to the Equitas deal closing in April.
Views on:-
Private Equity
* Funds invested are locked in. It's hard to get out for the investor.
* Fund Managers are compelled to invest since it is in their interest to earn more fees by generating more funds. They cannot go back to investors with surplus funds in hand.
* Trigger for the slow down could be junk bond yield spreads going up higher hampering leverage.
Overseas investments
WB has no bias against. Low holdings not reported in annual report. Reporting limit threshold of 3% in Europe a deterrent.
Executive Compensation
* Ratcheting and envy at play
* Non-independent comp committees.
* Compensation should be based on controllable factors. For instance, extraction cost based comp for an oil executive, not oil prices. Factor should be relevant as well.
Interest rates
* Credit contraction as a result of higher rates.
Contraction as was historical is not probable. Fed not likely to orchestrate a credit crunch. Follies of excess liquidity may bring about unhealthy legislation.
High Corporate profits
WB - Share in GDP getting higher, labor's share down It is not likely to persist.
CM - Share of financials is higher is the causw. Investment banks etc earning abnormal profits. Historically high consumer credit is also the reason.
Naked Shorting
WB welcomes shorters, sees it as a money making opportunity by lending stocks.
It is a hard position to take.
Gambling
* Excitement seeking is the underlying.
* Tax on ignorance - making it easier to gamble is preying on ignorance, not the job of a govt that serves people.
How to become a good investor
* Read everything you can
* Fill your minds with ideas, sort out the good ones
* Jump into investing. Reading about investing and actually doing it is as different as reading a romance novel and actually doing "something else".
* WB has same thought pattern as when he was 19 abt investments
CM - Rationalise - "What do you own and why do you own it?"
WB - Write an essay on why you would buy the company at the price

Friday, March 02, 2007

Buffett 2006 Letter

The 2006 annual letter from Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren E. Buffett makes an interesting read (Tell me something new!!!)

I was attracted to where he explains about the Equitas deal where Berkshire re-insures Equitas against upto $13.9 billion claims for securities and cash of $7.12 billion. Assuming the 10.4% return of S&P 500 as laid out in the letter, they will break-even in 6-7 years and changing the return to 21.6%, the break-even would be in 3-4 years. In Buffett's estimate, the payout period for the $13.9 billion is as long as 50 years. Just one word to describe the deal - ingenious!!!!!!!!!!!

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Berkshire Hathaway Meeting 2006

Last Saturday I attended the Berkshire Hathaway Meeting. Here is a good note in pdf format by Whitney Tilson on the meeting and here or here is another one.
Personally, it was a pleasure to be at the meeting. I have never spent a whole day listening to someone talk without getting bored, is to say the least. The icing on the cake was the opportunity for international shareholders to meet Warren, Charlie and Bill Gates (who is also a director). It was definitely the event of my lifetime.
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