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Thursday, October 20, 2005

Books I read recently - 2

The former is an interesting read on chance and randomness with its applications in investing and touches upon some common fallacies in decision making process like -
Post hoc ergo propter hoc - it is the reason because it came after
Felix qui potuit cognoscere causas - happy is he who understands what is behind things

Here are a few quotes from Fooled by Randomness:-

"The observation of the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments, or to admire a man's happiness that may yet, in course of time, suffer change. For the uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety of future; and him only to whom the divinity has (guaranteed) continued happiness until the end we may call happy." - Solon to Croesus
For the gods perceive things in the future, ordinary people things in the present, but the wise perceive things about to happen. - Philostratus' adage
" their intense meditation the hidden sound of things approaching reaches them and they listen reverently while in the street outside the people hear nothing at all" - C.P. Cavafy, Greek Poet
Scots Philosopher David Hume - No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion - Treatise on Human Nature - "The Black Swan Problem"

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